The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CO-Gov: On Tuesday, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton took the unusual step of asking Colorado’s secretary of state to toss the signatures his campaign had collected in order to make the June GOP primary ballot, declaring that the company he'd hired, Kennedy Enterprises, had engaged in fraud. Stapleton, who’d been his party’s presumptive frontrunner, will now compete in this Saturday's state party convention (also known as the party assembly), where he'll need to earn the support of at least 30 percent of the delegates to continue on to the primary. If Stapleton doesn't hit this threshold, his campaign is over.
Campaign Action
Until now, Stapleton's campaign had assumed that they would amass enough petitions to make the primary ballot without going through the assembly, but they'd considered competing at the convention anyway to try to keep Stapleton’s main rival, state Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, from winning enough support to move on.
That's because, unlike Stapleton, Coffman decided that she’d rest her hopes of advancing to the primary solely by way of the convention and would not gather any signatures. (Coffman’s decision was likely borne out of necessity: Republican consultants say it costs some $250,000 to petition your way onto the ballot these days, money her campaign simply didn’t have.) But Stapleton now needs to devote his efforts to making sure he has enough backing to advance rather than on stopping Coffman from doing so.
Yet despite this setback, he may be in good shape heading into the weekend. Back in March, a number of counties held nonbinding caucuses, and Stapleton's allies were encouraged by his strong showing. Coffman, by contrast, performed weakly in those caucuses, which is what had led Stapleton’s supporters to think they might be able to put an end to Coffman’s campaign at the convention.
Still, as we've mentioned before, Colorado conventions can be very unpredictable. None of the delegates are bound to any candidate, so a strong speech can be enough to shift the entire course of the assembly. This is exactly what happened in 2016, when Senate hopeful Darryl Glenn, who began the day with little money or name recognition, galvanized delegates with a fiery stem-winder. State Sen. Tim Neville had looked like the favorite going in, but Glenn ended up taking 70 percent of the delegates' votes, which immediately ended the candidacies of Neville and several other contenders who’d eschewed petitions.
Stapleton probably has enough support among convention-goers to avoid this sort of fate, but nothing's guaranteed.
1Q Fundraising
Be sure to keep our Senate fundraising roundup handy, since we update that as new numbers come in. As per usual, we'll have a House roundup after reports are due at the FEC on April 15.
● FL-Sen: Bill Nelson (D-inc): $3.2 million raised, $10.5 million cash-on-hand
● ND-Sen: Heidi Heitkamp (D-inc): $1.6 million raised, $5.3 million cash-on-hand; Kevin Cramer (R): $1.1 million raised, additional $40,000 transferred from House account, $1.9 million cash-on-hand
● OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): $3.3 million raised, $11.8 million cash-on-hand
● VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D-inc): $2 million raised, $10 million cash-on-hand
● WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): $3.7 million raised, $7.8 million cash-on-hand
● CA-22: Devin Nunes (R-inc): $1.25 million raised, $4.5 million cash-on-hand
● CO-06: Jason Crow (D): $462,000 raised, $884,000 cash-on-hand
● FL-18: Brian Mast (R-inc): $888,000 raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand
● FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): $500,000 raised, $700,000 cash-on-hand
● IA-01: Abby Finkenauer (D) $480,000 raised, $700,000 cash-on-hand
● IL-06: Peter Roskam (R-inc): $966,000 raised, $2.24 million cash-on-hand
● ND-AL: Mac Schneider (D): $130,000 raised (in one month)
● NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D): $1.12 million raised, $1.66 million cash-on-hand
● NY-12: Carolyn Maloney (D-inc): $500,000 raised; Suraj Patel (D): $525,000 raised
● OH-12: Troy Balderson (R): $410,000 raised
● TX-32: Pete Sessions (R-inc): $600,000 raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand; Lillian Salerno (D): $284,000 raised
● UT-04: Mia Love (R-inc): $750,000 raised, $914,000 cash-on-hand
● VA-10: Barbara Comstock (R-inc): $870,000 raised, $1.8 million cash-on-hand
● WI-07: Kyle Frenette (D): $250,000 raised (in six weeks), $190,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● CA-Sen: Gov. Jerry Brown is the latest prominent Democrat to endorse Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is facing a same-party challenge in the top-two election from former state Senate leader Kevin de Leon.
● WV-Sen: Rep. Evan Jenkins has begun attacking state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey on TV ahead of the May 8 Republican primary. Jenkins' ad blasts Morrisey for having previously worked as a lobbyist, accusing him of profiteering when it comes to politics and selling out to the pharmaceutical industry.
Meanwhile, Morrisey's allies at 35th PAC hit back with their own ad. Warning: The spot features a lot of very quick cuts of Jenkins and the various Democrats, which almost creates a nausea-inducing strobe effect. We watched it, but you don't have to.
The commercial starts right off the bat with a narrator declaring that Jenkins "ran for office seven times as a liberal Democrat." (Jenkins was elected to the legislature in 1994 as a Democrat and switched parties in 2013 as he launched his successful bid against Rep. Nick Rahall.) The narrator then accuses Jenkins of backing a pay raise for himself and "an Obama-style coal-killing cap-and-trade scheme." He then accuses the Jenkins of having supported Nancy Pelosi and John Kerry in the past, and even going to a 2008 campaign rally for Hillary Clinton.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Miami Beach Mayor Phillip Levine has announced that they'll spend $1.7 million on TV ads in April, which takes their total ad spending for the late August Democratic primary to about $7.7 million so far.
● MI-Gov: Oh god. In an utterly clueless move, businessman Shri Thanedar put up a post on Facebook on Saturday to inform his supporters that he was preparing for a debate hosted by the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus by pre-gaming at … Popeyes. And when asked about the post in a radio interview the next day, it really didn't help matters when he explained, "I love spicy chicken." Thanedar later removed the post, but only because, he claimed, the event was over. Oy.
It's a little startling that any Democrat in 2018 would pull a move so painfully reminiscent of Trump's infamous Cinco de Mayo "taco bowl" tweet, but part of the problem may be that Thanedar's introduction to Democratic politics is, according to a new report, a recent phenomenon. Several different Democratic consultants in Michigan spoke on the record to the Intercept and all told similar versions of the same story: When Thanedar, who is personally wealthy and has self-funded generously, approached them about a possible gubernatorial bid last year, he was agnostic about which party banner he might run under, saying he could run as a Democrat, a Republican, or an independent—"whichever side we thought he had the best chance to win on," in the words of one operative.
Thanedar was likewise squirrely about his political views: One consultant says he "admit[ted] he was pro-life" while another concluded he was "adamantly pro-choice." Thanedar himself doesn't dispute that he "remained noncommittal" but says he did so because he didn't want to "share any information … until such time as I announced my candidacy." He also claims that these consultants are now trying to "discredit him," apparently because he didn't hire them.
While there can be merit to launching a surprise campaign, the idea that Thanedar had to keep his politics secret from the people he wanted to pay to help him for strategic reasons "beggars belief," as one of the consultants put it. You can't keep secrets like this from your own advisors—how could they prepare for your campaign otherwise? In any case, given his recent faux pas, it sure seems like he could use some better advice from whoever it is he did wind up hiring.
● NH-Gov: Former state Sen. Molly Kelly kicked off her Democratic primary campaign on Tuesday, finally taking the plunge after being in exploratory mode for weeks. Kelly served a decade in the state Senate until she didn't seek re-election in 2016, and EMILY's List reportedly encouraged her to run for governor this cycle. Kelly's entrance into the race sets up a September primary battle with former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, who until now had been the only notable Democrat seeking the nomination to challenge GOP Gov. Chris Sununu.
● OH-Gov: Former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray has debuted his first Democratic primary ad, which is backed by $350,000. The spot starts off with footage of Obama singing Cordray's praises for standing up to big financial interests, while a narrator then lauds him for taking on predatory payday lenders, big banks, and student loan schemes that hurt the middle class.
● OK-Gov: Businessman Kevin Stitt is out with his latest ad, which comes in both a 30-second and minute-long version. The commercials feature Stitt speaking to a gathering of voters and hitting standard GOP themes of calling himself a conservative outsider who isn't a career politician. He avoids any policy specifics, but promises he'll be a problem-solver who can get Oklahoma out of the mess it's in.
● PA-Gov: State Sen. Scott Wagner has released a poll of next month's GOP primary from McLaughlin & Associates, which gives him a wide 50-24 lead over self-funding businessman Paul Mango. Wagner held a 45-13 edge over Mango in the last McLaughlin poll he released back in September, but McLaughlin's track record is quite simply awful, and other polling has been quite limited.
Both Wagner and Mango have been hammering each other on the airwaves in recent weeks, and it's possible Wagner's ads have left a mark. However, these numbers are very different than a recent Revily poll from an anti-Wagner group, which had him up just 20-18 last month.
● RGA, DGA: The Republican Governors Association has unveiled its latest round of TV ad reservations, and four out of the five states aren't that surprising: Alaska ($1.5 million), Connecticut ($1.7 million), Kansas ($1.1 million), and Minnesota ($2.3 million), each of which has looked competitive for a while. However, they also reserved $2.2 million in Tennessee, and while that's an open-seat contest, it's also a deep-red state where outgoing GOP Gov. Bill Haslam remains quite popular. It's possible Republicans are just being cautious there, and they can always cancel ad reservations if they're no longer worried later on.
Meanwhile, groups associated with the Democratic Governors Association have made their first reservations in five swing states that are entirely to be expected: Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and Wisconsin, the first four of which have open-seat races. There's no word yet on how much money went into each reservation.
House
● CA-10: Former Riverbank Mayor Virginia Madueno just earned an endorsement from Rep. Jared Huffman, making him the second Democrat in California's congressional delegation (along with Rep. Jackie Speier) to back Madueno heading into the June 5 primary.
● CA-49: EMILY's List has poured in another $173,000 on TV and digital ads and mailers to help Democrat Sara Jacobs ahead of the June 5 primary. Last week, they began spending on Jacobs' behalf with a $184,000 investment.
● CT-05: Gun-safety activist Mark Barden said on Monday he is actively considering running for Congress as a Democrat to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty. Barden's son Daniel was one of the 20 first-graders murdered in the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting, which took place in this district. That massacre prompted Connecticut's state government to pass new gun-safety measures in 2013, while Barden founded the Sandy Hook Promise nonprofit to advocate for reform. Barden said he'll decide "pretty soon," and Nancy Pelosi herself has reportedly encouraged him to run.
● FL-16: Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan has launched his second TV ad as part of a $200,000 buy. The spot praises Buchanan as an independent leader, touting him for supporting an offshore drilling ban, combating animal-cruelty, and supposedly "ensuring kids have access to affordable health care."
● FL-27, FL-25: While there are a ton of Democratic candidates running to succeed GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the 27th District, there are no viable contenders trying to unseat GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart in the neighboring 25th. Politico reports that House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer tried to convince at least one candidate, retired Miami Herald reporter Matt Haggman, to switch races, but Haggman has publicly reiterated that he was running in the 27th.
Politico also writes that Hoyer started to make his pitch after former University of Miami president Donna Shalala entered the August primary, and DCCC polling showed that many of the other candidates had little chance of beating her. Because Haggman and Shalala share a similar donor pool, national Democrats thought it made sense to ask him to switch, and they even polled a matchup in the 25th between him and Diaz-Balart. However, he doesn't seem interested, and there's no word on if any of his many primary foes are, either.
Diaz-Balart's seat, which stretches from Hialeah in the Miami area to Florida's Gulf Coast, went from 54-45 Romney to 50-48 Trump, and it might be winnable in a good Democratic year. However, Diaz-Balart will not be easy to unseat under any circumstances. The congressman has represented much of this territory since 2011, and before that, his brother Lincoln Diaz-Balart held the seat (Mario Diaz-Balart was first elected to the House in 2002, and when his brother retired in 2010, he switched to his more conservative district and easily won). The candidate filing deadline is May 4, so Team Blue doesn't have much time left to land a candidate against him.
● NC-03: Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey's latest GOP primary ad touts his conservative values and says he'll support Trump's agenda in Congress.
● NC-09: We have three polls of the May 8 GOP primary, and they all agree that Rep. Robert Pittenger is leading minister Mark Harris. SurveyUSA took a look at the race in early March for the conservative Civitas Institute, and they gave Pittenger a 52-20 edge, while little-known candidate Clarence Goins took 7.
This week, Pittenger's campaign dropped an early April poll from Public Option Strategies that found him leading Harris 59-26, while Goins grabbed 2. Harris' camp responded with a Red Dome Group poll taken last week that gave the incumbent a smaller 38-30 edge, while the memo did not mention Goins. North Carolina only requires a runoff if no one takes at least 30 percent of the vote, something that can't happen with only three candidates on the ballot.
Two years ago, Pittenger only beat Harris in a three-way race by just a 35.0-34.5 margin. But two of the problems that dragged him down in 2016 may not be factors this time. Back then, Pittenger was running in a district that was 60 percent new to him thanks to court-ordered redistricting, and he was facing an FBI and IRS investigation related to his old real estate company over loans he made to his 2012 congressional campaign. However, Pittenger now represents 100 percent of the seat he's seeking, and the investigation ended in May without any charges.
● NY-24: This week, scientist William Bass dropped out of the June Democratic primary and announced that he would run as an independent. Bass never looked like a viable candidate since he grew up just outside the seat and only recently moved to Syracuse after spending five years working as a scientist in Saudi Arabia for the oil company Saudi Aramco.
● OH-12: Republican Carol O'Brien, who serves as Delaware County prosecutor, is out with her first TV spot ahead of the crowded May 8 primary. O'Brien goes biographical and talks about her career as a prosecutor and pledges to work with Trump "to deport illegal aliens." Maybe it's only a problem in the YouTube version, but at times the music gets so loud that it's almost impossible to understand what O'Brien is saying. That's not something we can remember being an issue in a campaign ad before, and we watch a lot of ads!
● OH-16: The NRA has endorsed state Rep. Christina Hagan, one of two notable Republicans, along with former college and NFL wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez, seeking GOP Rep. Jim Renacci's open House seat.
● PA-04: State Rep. Madeleine Dean, one of three notable Democrats running in Pennsylvania's open (and solidly blue) 4th Congressional District, just earned the endorsement of Rep. Dwight Evans, who is seeking re-election in the neighboring 3rd District and served in the legislature with Dean before entering Congress.
● WV-03: GOP state Del. Carol Miller's new ad for the May 8 primary begins with her saying she does "the dirty work" on her bison farm, and she'll "cut the bull from politics." But while it might seem that Miller was drawing inspiration from Iowa Republican Joni Ernst's 2014 squeal ad, she instead goes in another direction and calls for building the border wall, stopping radical Islam, and "guarantee[ing] our sovereignty never takes a back seat to any foreign countries," as a clip of Fox's Sean Hannity appears on-screen as she talks with the caption "Sharia Law in America?" With no trace of irony, Miller lists one of West Virginia's values as "doing unto others as you'd have done unto you."
Mayoral
● Nashville, TN Mayor: On Tuesday, the Tennessee Supreme Court ruled that the special election for the final year of former Mayor Megan Barry's term needed to be held in May rather than in August. Election Day needs to be sometime between May 21 and May 25, and candidate qualifying will be reopened through Thursday.