(MENAFN- Somali Land Sun)
Somalilandsun- Somaliland government has an opportunity to legislate, implement and institutionalise power sharing policies amongst its citizen yet it's reluctance to do so by supporting only one-sided faction/party could render its governance power obsolete. Tribalism/clan domination is a disease Somali people can no longer afford to subscribe to as the recent Garxagis Supported rebellion, border conflict with Puntland in Tukarag and ceelafwenye suggested. Police brutality, arbitrary detention, land appropriation and grievous human rights abuses stand in the way of progress and development, president Bihi has a unique opportunity to wrestle control and consolidate power but seems to be hesitant. Federal government of Somalia can no longer maintain the façade of stability and security. If the Somaliland government has its house in order it could benefit substantially from the poor leadership and political paralysis of the FGS. The recenttentative negotiations and steps to find a solution by UK, UAE, Qatar and Turkey has possibilities but it's still early days and it depends entirely on the peace and security of the Southern regions.
Somali national army (SNA) doesn't have autonomy nor can it robustly resist the resurgence of al-Shabaab. The reasons for this enormous catastrophe is due to 'Poor Governance'.Somali national army soldiers are on the front line of terrorism and the Somali government of Mogadishu doesn't pay its own soldiers for months yet expects total obedience and loyalty. These men and women deserve better leaderships from president Farmajo and PM Khyere who lack patriotic values.
Instead of complaining about Somaliland and earnestly instigating ways to sabotage its existence by declaring the Berbera deal as void the Mogadishu government ought to pay closer attention to the reasons why al-Shabaab militant group audaciously has captured Bal'ad town again on the 18 of March 2019 after AMISOM initially liberated it 26/06/2012 without firing a shot. This town was held to ransom for 3 years by the al-Shabaab before AMISOM arrived, some argue the SNA left this strategic town outside of Mogadishu for the terrorist because of 'missed salaries'.
This dismal epic failure has been widely circulated on Twitter, irrefutable quotes from Paul D William and Harun Maruf brilliant writers on Al-Shabaab and AMISOM state of affairs who were kind enough to answer my questions few months ago vocalised it best in their assertions that Somali government will negotiate with Al-Shabaab it's not an if but when. Even though this would be a serious blow for the hundreds and thousands of victims who died in vain. In terms of economics and monetary value what would be the price of peace for Somali people when al-Shabaab a terrorist group is to be welcomed after the carnage and despair it created! Will similar deals be afforded to Boko Haram and all the other terror groups around the world?
The political establishment in Mogadishu are willing to let the SNA (Somali National Army) fail because the end game for the current government is to assess the benefits of the upcoming oil and gas ventures. The Ethiopian government lacks access to the sea, it's landlocked country but purchased naval ships from the Chinese paid for by the US governmentbillions of Aid funding allocated to Ethiopia for maintaining stability in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia has become the most valued asset to AFRICOM, it has performed exceptionally well under the tutelage of Ahmed Abiye, the most progressive modernist African leader it ever had. This is fantastic news for oil and gas companies in the Western regions who began drilling operations. The clash of Oromo and Somali Ogadenia few months ago was quickly repressed and all is well it seems, maybe the Amhara, Tigray grievousness are not to be addressed either as the new leader Ahmed Abiye has it all under control.
The recent agreement between Ethiopia and Djibouti to transport crude oil and natural gas from Ogadenia Somali territory is indicative of the collapse of Somali unification hope. It's the final nail in the coffin in terms of ever hoping for a united greater Somalia, thus it is inevitable that Somaliland will gain independence and succeed as autonomous independent valued member of the international community. The federal government of Somalia failure to reach amicable agreement with Somaliland ruined any leverage it ever had yet the central issue is will Somaliland survive without the rest of Somalia given the recent performance of SNA? its unequivocally yes because it has done so successfully since 1991.
The nitty gritty of international constitution on sovereignty and self-determination hinges on many variables: whether the case for secession a valid point of contention for the FGSeffect Somaliland ability to negotiate, implement and follow through with agreement on an international level with DP world, Genel and RAK which is a no. In fact, it's irrelevant whether Mogadishu federal government opposes such agreements because it's influence on Somaliland affairs is non-existent. What would President Farmajo do send SNA to subdue the Somalilanders by force when he himself is surrounded by the most vicious political rivals, terroristorganisation and ineffective parliament.
According to Hassan Sheikh former president of Somalia the country was open for business 2013 that dream required tangible, effective, decisive and innovative political change to materialise.
Recently it was reported GCL-POLY petroleum energy holdings Ltd will build 767 km gas pipe line between Ethiopia eastern Ogaden basin (Calub Hilala fields) and Djibouticonduit. This plan has been part of Djiboutian aspiration to further cement economic ties with Ethiopia, by acting as an export terminal on the Red Sea that was signed off in February 19th 2019 . Djibouti seeks to isolate its competitors Eritrea and Somaliland, but Ethiopia will do business with everybody and it has done so already.
Somaliland challenged the feasibility of Djibouti strategic location by offering the government of landlocked Ethiopia acost-effective measure rerouting pipeline plans through Berbera port (Ethiopia has 19% share with DP world Berberadeal) which would be 400km less than 700km Djibouti proposal professes. This rivalry for Ethiopian investment is not constructive for peaceful resolutions because each nation or region has ulterior motives and given the poor political leadership it could further perpetuates animosity once the riches of oil and gas flows causing mayhem for these new democracies.
How the federal government of Somalia would view this is irrelevant, it has no effective national army, it has no constitutional authority over member states who submit to the will of president Farmajo and it lacks security and safety given the recent successful incursion of alshabab. It was a miscalculation by FGS to further enrage Kenya by holding a meeting in London pontificating oil and gas exploration.
On the 7th of February 2019 ministry of petroleum and mineral resources announced offshore hydrocarbon data licensing to Spectrum a multi-client Seismic company. According to the Somali federal government and Norway based companyneither entities sought to auction offshore oil blocks at the conference (Claridge's hotel no less) but the intention was 'to understand potential of the blocks from the seismic data, as well as the selection of blocks, the legal-fiscal terms and the bidding conditions'. In other words, Spectrum conducts feasibility study for the oil gas companies like a risk assessment report on what and could be regarded as an obstacle to profiteering from the down and trodden Somali people with poor governance.
Unlike the FGS flouting article 44 of its own federal constitution, that states an agreement on resource sharing is yet to be clarified and is incomplete. The reality is that oil and gas companies cannot invest in a climate of uncertainty, numerous governance issues plagues Somalia, questioning at Chatham house Mr Paul.D William author of (fighting for peace in Somalia AMISOM's War Against Al-Shabaab)his book illustrates that Somalia still struggles with implementing basic law and order, hence the occupation ofAMISOM. The Somali national army would not be allowed basic arms until good governance ensues, this is classic recolonisation and suppression of sovereignty and itsconsequences of the weak political leaders of FGS.
The Federal Government occupation with Somaliland Berbera port deal is insignificant as it doesn't measure up to its own inadequacy and failings. Somaliland is secure and peaceful autonomous country while Somalia languishes in chaos and perpetual instability. Al-Shabab are not the cause and effectper se but only could be regarded as a thorn alongside other thorns. It was the disaffected clan less youth who joined either for nationalism (long forgotten dream) or international jihadistagenda that was long defeated in Syria and Levant that are gaining power again. Islamic rule of Somalia cannot happen, because Somali traditions of Xeer is in direct conflict with such ideology thus without conflict resolution and reconciliation within Somali themselves the international community is not the appropriate forum as its failures (4.5, AMISOM) is widely disputed. It has to be a Somali overture, no more running to Addis Abba or Nairobi by incompetentleaders to resolve their difference of opinion.
All leaders are struggling to dispose with corruption but given Somali government Mogadishu's rampant unapologetic corruption Somaliland seems bastion of stability and honesty.
What is at stake is not the sovereignty of Somali people but their very existence. Why would spectrum pay the air fare and luxurious expenses of the Minister of FGS if the deal has not been already decided, lock -stock and barrel. Nothing will derail the deal, it is apparent from the Kenyan foreign relations Minister Dr Juma reaction to the news of the conference. Kenya fears maritime border dispute by the international courts will side with Somalia which is probable outcome.
The actions of the Kenyan government February 9th two days after the event in London recalling ambassadors respectively to determine the agreement between spectrum and FGS indicate Kenyan claims over the offshore blocks to be tenable and that colonial boundaries are not a high priority.
Instead the recent bombing of the Al-Shabab Assault dusitD2 hotel January 16th, 2019 indicates Kenyan forces inability to address terrorism, instead of government Ministers avarice concern for oil fields this affliction with monetary concerns overshadows the greater security threat. This ongoing war on terror that may end KDF occupation of Kismayo and theclosure of refugee camps that generates income for the Terkana people could very well end unsolicited Kenyan intervention in Somalia.
I have asked HE William Ruto deputy president of Kenya at Chatham House regarding the role of Kenya in dispensing with the refugee camps to silence critics who regard Dadaab haven/recruiting grounds for Al-Shabab militants. Given therecent terror attacks maybe the national troops of Kenya should be recalled acting as effective force and deterrent against much needed domestic terror onslaught? However,since these camps the Kenyan government allows to exist in their country generate income for the local population shuttingthem down completely could be problematic, there were voluntary repatriation with the assistance of UN. His excellency responded that terror organisation isn't Limited to Al-shabab and that Kenya collaborated with otherinternational stakeholders to combat this deadly multinationalelusive enemy. I had hoped like the Burundian soldiers, the KDF and Ethiopian soldiers would give power to the SNA (Somali National Army) alas without good governance southern Somalia will have to be occupied indefinitely.
On the other side of the Somali conundrum the peaceful Somalilanders are not well, one would think 750,000 people struggling with drought would illicit sympathy from the international community yet starvation in order to acquiesceto terms unacceptable to Somaliland seems to be the order of the day. Somaliland people aren't applauded for maintaining peace and security for 28 years it's their right to secession which baffles many international donors. For decadesSomaliland people Struggled but it seems Mogadishu is the legitimate recognised Government and all International aid funding must go through FGS which Is terrible as millions are stolen by defective ministers. These actions of rewarding corruption are simply foolhardy to say the least. Somaliland people will categorically never submit to a false and corrupt system, they would rather maintain their own nonexistenceunrecognised statehood out of sheer stoicism, nomadic principles long forgotten by Somali corrupt leaders who enjoy 5 star luxury hotels while the people starve to death.
The very essence of Somaliland spirit is independence and freedom which is something Mogadishu enclave does not subscribe to or acknowledges in its point 4.5 constitutions (incomplete).
Somaliland people are not occupied by Mogadishu politics but they are concerned about its repercussions, the inequality amongst the Isaaq and other clans hasn't gone unnoticed. Recent events of Tukarag and defection of Colonel Carre a GARXAGIS dissident indicate all isn't well. Yet in comparison to the rest of Somalia the Somaliland government is in a far stronger position than the rest of Somalia. Al-Shabab fears the Somaliland army effective and robust counterinsurgency tactics, while Puntland and FGS are too concerned about donor continuous funding. Instead of learning from the peaceful regions namely Somaliland, Mogadishu would rather starve fellow Somali to submission.
The ultimate question is why penalise Somaliland since there are no terrorists? Shouldn't the FGS be penalised instead for its poor performance?
The Somaliland people value justice, peace and equality which led to the destruction of Siad Barre regime, if the current Somali federal government has made restitution, acknowledged wrong doing (land appropriation) and ceased disillusionment of facts ( not condoning war atrocities) hope of reconciliation may have been accorded yet this hasn't happened.
The intractable conflict is attributed to Somali sense of patriotism to clan ship and familial loyalty, if a politician stands for human rights in either arena one is judged by clan affiliations rather than merit.
IIhan Omar would've never survived Somali politics, her very essence and energy would have been questioned relentlessly by clan affiliation. Yet it's what intrinsically democratically signifies Somali culture, the right to be your own master and non-conformity to the rules of engagement. This chaotic sense of disorder perpetuates the narrative Somali's are totally unruly therefore like children they must taught how to be civilised.
The disease of corruption and incompetence has become the norm; without transparency and dialogue fragmentation would allow external forces to divide and conquer.
By: Fatheya Yallas
MSc international conflict
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