QatarGas offshore drilling rig in the Persian Gulf (Photo by Tuck/ullstein bild via Getty Images)
Qatar, the small, petroleum-rich Middle Eastern country, is used to punching above its weight. It had a few rocky years, after its suspension from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — whose member states are Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman — in 2017. But now it is back, unbowed, ready to be the go-to country for diplomatic moves in the entire region.
If Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, Qatar’s emir, isn’t already in Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s speed-dial directory, he soon will be. His country has long been just contrarian enough to alarm the more conservative members of the GCC and to make it a diplomatic force with links to all the world’s major capitals, including the Iranian capital, Tehran.
Qatar has tried to occupy that space on the global map reserved for countries that are called on to use their “good offices” in dispute resolution. Foremost among those is Switzerland and the list includes Norway, Finland, Canada and Ireland.
When the GCC suspended Qatar in 2017, its friendships were important. They extend as far as China and include Turkey and Russia.
Qatari relations with the United States have been good for a long time. It hosts the giant Al Udeid Air Base, which played an important role in both Iraq wars.
It could be said in the dispute that the GCC lost and Qatar won. But none of those involved wants to emphasize that. No fatted calf, no hugs and kisses on both cheeks, just a quiet return to the status quo ante.
The GCC had sought to discipline Qatar and its rulers in Doha, the capital, for assisting the Muslim Brotherhood; for advancing its own foreign policy agenda, especially by keeping channels open to Iran; for supporting a faction in the Yemeni civil war; and for creating and maintaining Al Jazeera, a worldwide cable television channel that is critical of some GCC members.
New Day For Qatar
The isolation of Qatar was engineered by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt — with the impetus believed to have come from the Saudis. Public rebukes of Qatar came from Bahrain. The rapprochement was organized by the United States and Kuwait. It was quietly announced at the GCC’s annual summit, held in the Saudi province of Al-Ula, in early January.
There is recognition in the region, and reluctant acceptance, that the Biden administration will try to do a deal with Iran, possibly revive the abandoned nuclear deal, known as JCPOA, and ease sanctions.
Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani boldly called for dialogue with Iran. He also told Bloomberg News that there are members of the GCC that support this privately.
The region is nervous about Iranian hegemony. Iran is a supplier of aid to Hezbollah in Lebanon and supports Shia interests in Iraq and elsewhere. Countries with substantial Shia minorities fear Iran’s propensity for making trouble — as does Israel which favored former President Donald Trump’s hardline on Iran.
Edward Gabriel, former U.S. ambassador to Morocco, says the Middle East is so interconnected that the smallest move in one place has ramifications across the region. An opening to Iran, promoted by Qatar, will affect the entire region, including others trying to extend their influence, like Turkey, which is playing a role in Libya and seeking hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey would like to get back territory which it ceded in Northern Iraq and Syria with the creation of modern Turkey under the great realist Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1923.
Turkey and Iran would like to be dominant powers in the Middle East and claim historical entitlement. Sunni Arabs fear that — mindful of the Ottoman Empire’s legacy. As for Qatar, it helps that former Foreign Minister and current Defense Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammad Al Attiyah wields considerable influence in Ankara.
Russia, too, is a power in the region. By participating on the side of President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, Russia has gained something its strategists have longed for since the time of the tsars: a Mediterranean presence. It won’t be leaving.
The truth is the Middle East is the meeting place of Europe, Asia and Africa. It has given birth to the three great religions, Judaism, Christianity and Islam, which trace themselves back to the same prophet, Abraham.
The region has dominated European history since the beginning of recorded time. As Christopher Hitchens, the late British-American journalist and intellectual, who had lived in Cyprus for many years, told me, “It is where it all began.”
While there is less alarm over the newly expansionist Turkey, every country in the region was shocked at how effective inexpensive, weaponized drones, supplied by the Turks to their Azerbaijani allies, were in driving the Armenians out of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
That was an embarrassment for Russia, which had armed Armenia, and was a wake-up call for the region. The message was loud and clear: You can attack your neighbor with near-off-the-shelf weapons. You don’t need expensive missiles if your enemy is close.
Another message was that with cheap, weapons-carrying drones, an expensive defense system — like Israel’s Iron Dome — might not do the job. Extreme vulnerability can increase the inclination to diplomacy.
Israel Makes Progress With Abraham Accords
Israel has made diplomatic progress with the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between itself, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The accords open markets for Israel and increase its security.
In this new Middle Eastern order can others be far behind?
Underlying the complexities which make peace and prosperity in the region more difficult are the hydrocarbon reserves. They are huge — nearly half of the world’s proven reserves — and they are easily extracted by conventional drilling. Its share of this wealth makes Qatar — its population is estimated at 2.8 million, but citizens account for less than 500,000 — a force to reckoned with.
Sensibly, the Qatari government has concentrated on liquified natural gas (LNG) exports around the globe. They have built the infrastructure for this and guaranteed stable income for decades through long-term contracts. The world demand for natural gas continues to rise as electric utilities abandon coal.
Global oil demand is stable at around 100 million barrels a day — slightly off because of Covid-19, but still strong. In oil, overproduction is a price threat, less so LNG with its long-term contracting.
That means that Qatar’s ruler and his ministers have little to worry about financially as they seek to bring Iran and the United States to the table and to gain plaudits for the endeavor – and find new respect in the Gulf and around the world.
